The current environment of the U.S. stock market is marked by structural divergence, a phenomenon that is likely to intensify rather than diminish. This arises from an age-old principle where the market consistently rewards companies that are well-prepared for the future while punishing those that lack foresight. As expectations of prolonged high interest rates become fully priced into the market, we may potentially witness a rise in better buying opportunities.

One of the most noted indicators of impending recession is the inversion of the yield curve, a scenario that has gained attention particularly due to the rapid interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the past two years. This accelerated approach has significantly elevated short-term interest rates, resulting in a pronounced inversion of the yield curve, which peaked early in 2023. For instance, in July, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds surpassed that of ten-year bonds by more than a percentage point, reflecting a situation not encountered since the crisis surrounding Silicon Valley Bank, and is eerily reminiscent of scenarios last observed in the 1980s. However, upon revisiting the yield curve a mere three months later, we find it has dramatically shifted; apart from the continued inversion between the two and ten-year bonds, yields on thirty-year bonds have begun to surpass those of three, five, and seven-year bonds, creating a steeper yield curve.

The unwind of the yield curving inversion signifies that the market is entering a volatile transition period, although the critical aspect lies in the path through which this inversion is resolved. There are primarily two scenarios that could develop: the first, termed a 'bullish steepening,' occurs when short-term Treasury yields decrease while long-term rates remain relatively unchanged. The second scenario, labeled 'bearish steepening,' indicates that short-term rates remain elevated while long-term rates jump to even higher levels.

Typically, a 'bullish steepening' is accompanied by a swift deceleration in the economy and inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to gradually ease monetary policy. Although this can yield moments of volatility, the recoveries tend to be rapid and relatively gentle. In stark contrast, a 'bearish steepening' usually signals the market's belief that economic conditions will force inflation to persist over the long term, thereby keeping interest rates and borrowing costs elevated for an extended duration. This results in frequent reevaluation of corporate value, which is often less reactive to one-off gains or losses but remains sensitive to factors influencing long-term financing costs and earnings.

This backdrop helps elucidate certain phenomena unfolding within the U.S. stock market in 2023. While major stock indices have performed admirably, this has largely been propped up by a handful of mega-cap companies. Notably, over half of the companies saw their stock prices drop to 52-week lows. Those that managed to perform well typically exhibited characteristics such as scale economies and robust balance sheets. Companies with significant market shares not only tend to acquire weaker competitors but also benefit from abundant cash reserves that allow them to capitalize on short-term high-interest returns.

Contrastingly, firms burdened with high levels of debt are facing rigorous scrutiny. Traditionally regarded as safe havens during economic downturns, utility and consumer stocks have recently experienced a sharp decline in valuation. This dual hit arises from rising operational costs exacerbated by inflation, as well as escalating financing costs due to persistently high interest rates. One illustrative case is that of NextEra Energy Partners (NEP), a leading player in green power and a limited partnership of NextEra Energy.

As of early 2023, NEP was optimistic about reaching an EBITDA within the range of $2.4-$2.6 billion, but this projection was revised downward to approximately $1.9-$2.1 billion by the time third-quarter results were reported. This more than 20% reduction cannot solely be attributed to unexpected spikes in operating costs or declining subsidies; rather, it showcases a significant failure in expectations. Central to this issue is the firm’s debt structure, which reveals approximately $2 billion of debt coming due over the next two years, with current trading yields exceeding 7% while their weighted average coupon was around 2%.

Assuming the company needs to refinance at this higher rate, it translates to an additional annual interest burden of about $100 million. Furthermore, NEP faces an additional $1.4 billion in debt maturing in 2026 and 2027, which, if the rate environment does not improve, could add more than $50 million in extra interest expenses—totally eclipsing 10% of the firm’s annual revenues for a company valued at just $1.9 billion.

This downtrodden outlook and the looming 'debt wall' resonate through the stock market, as NEP has lost about 70% of its market value since the start of 2023, now offering a dividend yield close to 15%. However, such dramatic depreciation alone does not warrant a greedy pursuit of undervalued stocks. The drastically reduced valuation has similarly obstructed avenues for equity financing. Consequently, NEP is resorting to divesting still-valuable natural gas pipeline assets to alleviate its debt burden, although it's uncertain at what valuation this sale will occur. With numerous pressing issues at hand, the degree to which NEP can turn its fortunes around remains to be seen. What this delineates is how a 'bearish steepening' initiates a chain reaction and triggers significant reevaluation within capital markets.

The recent sobering experiences of companies like NEP are not isolated. Many others are encountering similar predicaments; some exhibit a precarious immediate debt situation while others are seeing prolonged high-interest rates lead to valuation adjustments. Notable examples include perennial food manufacturers such as Hormel and condiment giants like Kraft Heinz. Despite seeming to be facing an existential threat from the burgeoning appetite for instantaneous weight loss solutions, the real root of the issue lies in their inflated valuations, now starkly mismatched with the present economic landscape. When the market reacts, the recalibration of values tends to occur with alarming rapidity and severity.

Future predictions remain elusive, yet the rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields have eclipsed market discussions. The American Treasury faces an abundant supply of bonds over the next couple of years, and traditional buyers—namely the Federal Reserve, foreign central banks, and financial institutions—are exhibiting a waning purchasing power. The only remedy for this trend—further Fed intervention—remains fraught with risks of inadequate action.

Historically, the relationship between stock market valuations and Treasury yields has not always been synchronized. However, I firmly advocate for the market's inherent ability to self-correct. It is plausible that the structural discrepancy characterizing the current U.S. stock market may amplify rather than diminish. The market inherently favors enterprises that prepare for the future while penalizing those that stumble in the face of hardship. As the market incorporates extended expectations of elevated interest rates, new and better buying opportunities may emerge, allowing investors to align with their unique risk appetites. Until then, we may continue down the current trajectory but must remain alert to the possibility that the bond market, particularly Treasury bonds, could revert to pre-21st-century dynamics, where performance trends tend to align more closely, mitigating the hedge and safe-have functionalities.